Fuel Supply
Three major fuel depots (Foynes Limerick, Galway, Whitegate Cork) blockaded by protesters since April 8, with over 100 petrol stations dry as of April 10 morning and projected 500 by April 11. Half of Ireland's fuel supplies locked up; emergency services curtailed. Blockades driven by farmer/haulier anger over Iran-war fuel price spike.
Food & Supply Chain
Ireland's fuel crisis blockades have caused supply disruption with approximately 500 service stations at risk of running out of stock, creating wider systemic risks for supply chains. Food inflation remains elevated at 6.5% as of early April 2026, with grocery prices rising alongside general logistical pressures from the fuel crisis.
Transport & Infrastructure
Nationwide fuel protests entered day 4 on April 11, 2026, with sustained motorway blockades across M1, M50, M7, M8, and M18 routes. Dublin public transport services severely impacted with Green Line Luas suspended in city centre, Dublin Bus operating curtailed services with 60+ vehicles occupying O'Connell Street, and Bus Éireann services diverted nationwide. Emergency service fuel contingencies activated with fire service non-essential activities suspended.
Political & Resolution
Fuel protests enter fourth day with deadlocked negotiations: Government meeting concluded without new fuel relief offers. Defence Forces deploy heavy recovery vehicles to clear blockades at critical infrastructure including Whitegate refinery. Political opposition splits—Sinn Féin/Left criticises militarisation while Coalition and business call for enforcement.
Severity Trends
Category severity over the past 6 updates
Risk Scenarios
Probabilistic assessment across 24 tracked scenarios
Near-term Operational (48hrs – 2 weeks)
Medium-term Economic (2–8 weeks)
Severe Escalation (1–6 months)
Extreme Tail Risks (low probability, high impact)
Included for analytical completeness — low probability but monitored for early warning signals
Data quality good for near-term fuel/transport impacts but limited anti-establishment sources and real-time supply chain data reduce confidence on escalation scenarios.