Fuel Supply
Fuel depot blockades at Foynes, Whitegate, and Galway continue into Day 4. Over 400 forecourts reported dry nationally, with Munster worst affected. Brent crude at $111/barrel.
Food & Supply Chain
Supermarket supply disruption intensifying in Munster and western regions. Bread and milk availability patchy in Limerick and Cork. Grocery inflation at 6.5% and rising.
Transport & Infrastructure
Public transport operating near-normally in Dublin but regional bus services reduced. Two motorway closures in Munster due to protest action. Airport access unaffected.
Political & Resolution
Government crisis meeting scheduled for 11 April. Protest leaders setting preconditions for negotiation. Defence Forces on standby but not yet deployed. Opposition calling for emergency Dáil session.
Risk Scenarios
Probabilistic assessment across 24 tracked scenarios
Near-term Operational (48hrs – 2 weeks)
Medium-term Economic (2–8 weeks)
Severe Escalation (1–6 months)
Extreme Tail Risks (low probability, high impact)
Included for analytical completeness — low probability but monitored for early warning signals
Moderate confidence — situation is fluid with high uncertainty around protest resolution timeline and Hormuz geopolitical dynamics. Source agreement is reasonable on facts but divergent on framing.